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Future Projections of Precipitation and Temperature in Northeast, Thailand using Bias-Corrected Global Climate Models


Paper Type 
Contributed Paper
Title 
Future Projections of Precipitation and Temperature in Northeast, Thailand using Bias-Corrected Global Climate Models
Author 
Wittanan Tammadid, Ketmanee Nantasom, Wichayaporn Sirksiri, Supika Vanitchung, Chaiwatchara Promjittiphong, Atsamon Limsakul and Phongthep Hanpattanakit
Email 
phongthep@g.swu.ac.th
Abstract:

     The increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) has resulted in global climate change, with the Northeast region of Thailand experiencing the highest rate of change. This poses signifi cant risks of drought and its impact on crop yield production. To better understand the potential consequences of climate change and devise suitable adaptation strategies, this study aims to project precipitation and temperature data for Northeast Thailand from 2015 to 2055, using bias-corrected global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results showed that the annual precipitation and temperature increased from 2015 to 2055 under both RCPs. The annual average (minimum-maximum) of precipitation from the CanESM, GFDL, MIROC5, NorESM, and ensemble mean from four models under RCP4.5 were 1,238.83 (904.28-1,629.70), 1,227.82 (865.49- 1,721.31), 1,312.78 (876.60-1,616.38), 1,350.21 (985.55-1,625.00), and 1,282.41 (1,088.43-1,461.49) mm and RCP8.5 were 1,267.96 (864.24-1,712.86), 1,222.20 (863.79-1,835.43), 1,294.07 (843.04-1,752.41), 1,353.14 (1,059.50-1,827.23), and 1,284.34 (1,116.55-1,541.63) mm, respectively. While, those of temperature under RCP4.5 were 29.27 (28.15-30.35), 29.59 (27.98-31.20), 29.12 (27.65-30.70), 28.09 (26.96-29.14), and 29.02 (28.08-29.90) °C and RCP8.5 were 29.50 (28.12-31.40), 29.68 (28.23-31.50), 29.11 (27.51-30.26), 28.37 (27.11-29.88), and 29.17 (28.08-30.66) °C, respectively. These fi ndings suggest that the annual precipitation is lower under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5, while the temperature shows an increasing trend under both RCPs. Therefore, it is evident that climate change will manifest differently in Northeast Thailand, depending on local contexts and the measures implemented today. Understanding the impacts and risks of future climate change at a local scale and identifying adaptive solutions pose signifi cant challenges for the future.

Article ID
e2023041
Received Date 
2023-02-20
Revised Date 
2023-06-13
Accepted Date 
2023-07-03
Full Text 
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Keyword 
temperature, global climate model, Northeast Thailand, precipitation
Volume 
Vol.50 No.4 (July 2023)
DOI 
https://doi.org/10.12982/CMJS.2023.041
Citation 
Tammadid W.,Nantasom K.,Sirksiri W.,Vanitchung S.,Promjittiphong C.,Limsakul A., et al., Future Projections of Precipitation and Temperature in Northeast, Thailand using Bias-Corrected Global Climate Models, Chiang Mai Journal of Science, 2023; 50(4): e2023041. DOI 10.12982/CMJS.2023.041.
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