Chiang Mai Journal of Science

The global food system's overemphasis on efficiency and profitability has triggered environmental degradation, food insecurity, and nutritional imbalance. This study constructs an integrated Environment-Equity-Economy (EEE) Model consisting of three interlocking sub-models. It adopts a Logistic Model to simulate the gradual transition to plant-based diets driven by an animal product tax, establishes a government-led food surplus redistribution mechanism funded by a Food Equity Tax, and quantifies the economic trade-offs of these policies. The application of the model to China and Finland illustrates its potential effectiveness. Under the proposed policy framework, simulation results for China indicate a potential 25.79% reduction in food system greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and elimination of food insecurity by 2029, with an estimated 5.14% net profit decline. For Finland, the projections suggest a 33.22% emission reduction by 2040 and hunger elimination by mid-2027, with a 9.77% net profit loss. Subject to robustness verification through sensitivity analysis, the model appears applicable across countries at different development levels, offering a quantifiable framework for advancing sustainable and equitable food system transformation aligned with UN SDG 2 and SDG 13.